• Chih-Ying Ou, Chiung-Zuei Chen, Chun-Hsiang Yu, Chih-Hui Shiu, and Tzuen-Ren Hsiue.
• Division of Chest Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, Tainan, Taiwan.
• Respirology. 2014 Jul 1;19(5):694-9.

Background And ObjectiveChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a pulmonary disease with systemic involvement. Several multidimensional indices have been developed to predict long-term outcomes. However, these indices have not been compared and validated in Taiwanese patients with COPD.MethodsA prospective, observational, hospital-based study was designed, and a total of 621 patients were recruited from May 2006 to December 2011. Patients followed at least 1 year were enrolled and 594 patients eligible for inclusion. Three prognostic indices--the ADO (age, dyspnoea and airflow obstruction), BODEx (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea and exacerbations), and CPI (the COPD Prognostic Index)--were validated and the predictive power of each was analysed.ResultsThe median follow-up of the 594 patients was 33 months (range 1-72 months), and the mortality rate was 19.2% (114 deaths). All indices were significantly predictive for all-cause mortality in our validation cohort. Furthermore, the C statistics of the three indices, indicating their predictive accuracy, were all >0.7 (area under the curve of the CPI 0.718, P < 0.001, ADO 0.702, P < 0.001, BODEx 0.702, P < 0.001).ConclusionsADO, BODEx and CPI scores are useful predictors of all-cause mortality with significantly discriminative properties in Taiwanese patients with COPD.© 2014 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

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