• T Aalto, S Sinikallio, H Kröger, H Viinamäki, A Herno, V Leinonen, V Turunen, S Savolainen, and O Airaksinen.
• Kyyhkylä Rehabilitation Center and Hospital, Mikkeli, Finland. timo.aalto@kyyhkyla.fi
• Scand J Surg. 2012 Jan 1;101(4):255-60.

Background And AimsLumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) is the most frequent indication for back surgery in adults aged over 65 years, but about one-third of operated patients have less than good/excellent results from the operation. Awareness of outcome predictors and their predictive values may help clinicians in their assessment of the prognosis of patients when considering surgical treatment. Our aim was to study the preoperative predictors in LSS for a good postoperative outcome (satisfaction with surgery and functional improvement) with a two-year follow-up.Material And MethodsLSS patients (n = 102) completed a questionnaire preoperatively and on two-year follow-up. Preoperative patient-related predictors, self-rated health, comorbidities and preoperative treatment were assessed. Satisfaction with the surgical outcome was assessed with a seven-category scale; satisfaction was determined to be good if the patient response was "condition has considerably improved" or "totally cured". Other responses ("condition has slightly improved" or worse) represented poorer satisfaction. A good functional outcome was determined as >30% relative improvement compared to the presurgery score in the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI).ResultsThe predictors for good satisfaction were age < 75 years at operation (OR 4.03; 95% CI 1.35-12.02; p = 0.012) and no previous lumbar operation (OR 3.65; 95% CI 1.13-11.79; p = 0.031). Predictors for a good improvement in the ODI score were regular preoperative analgesic use < 12 months (OR 3.40; 95% CI 1.21-9.53; p = 0.020), non-smoking (OR 3.47; 95% CI 1.09-11.03; p = 0.035) and good (above average) self-rated health (OR 3.27; 95% CI 1.06-10.12; p = 0.039).ConclusionsIn LSS, regular analgesic treatment preoperatively for 12 months or less, self-rated health above average and non-smoking predicted a good postoperative functional improvement. An age under 75 years and no previous lumbar operation predicted good post-operative satisfaction with the surgery.

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