• V Sehgal, G R Sethi, H P Sachdev, and L Satyanarayana.
• Department of Pediatrics, Maulana Azad Medical College, New Delhi.
• Indian Pediatr. 1997 Mar 1;34(3):213-9.

ObjectiveTo identify the predictors of mortality due to acute lower respiratory tract infection (ALRI).DesignProspective cohort study.SettingUrban tertiary care teaching hospital.Methods201 cases with ALRI between 2 weeks to 5 years of age were prospectively enrolled and followed up to determine outcome. Detailed history and clinical evaluation were recorded on a pretested proforma. Significant independent predictors of mortality were determined by comparison of dead subjects (n = 21) with surviving children (n = 180) in a multiple logistic analytic framework.ResultsThe case fatality rate (CFR) was 10.45%. Significant independent predictors of mortality were (OR, 95% CI) age less than 1 year (23.1, 2.7-197.5), inability to feed (6.2, 1.3-30.7), associated loose stools (5.1,1.2-27.3), weight for age Z score < -3 (3.9,1.01-9.7), short duration of fever (1.2,1.0-1.5) and bandemia (1.1,1.05-1.2). The WHO guidelines identified 91% of children diagnosed as ALRI by clinical and investigative criteria. The CFR was related to severity of WHO classification ("pneumonia"-0%, "severe pneumonia"-8.7% and "very severe pneumonia"-47.0%). However, 2 of the 18 subjects with a diagnosis of "no pneumonia" expired (CFR 11.1% and 10% of total mortality).ConclusionEven in settings of high case fatality, predictors of mortality can be identified in under five children suffering from ALRI. In this context, age below 1 year, inability to feed, presence of loose stools and severe malnutrition merit attention for interventional purposes.

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