• Chengzhen Bao, Mamat Mayila, Zhenhua Ye, Jianbing Wang, Mingjuan Jin, Wenjiong He, and Kun Chen.
• School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China. baochengzhen@sina.com.
• Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2015 Jul 1;12(7):7172-84.

BackgroundForecasting the disease burden of the elderly will contribute to make a comprehensive assessment about physical and mental status of the elderly in China and provide a basis for reducing the negative consequences of aging society to a minimum.MethodsThis study collected data from a public database online provided by Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Grey model GM (1, 1) was used to forecast all-cause and disease-specific rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2015 and 2020.ResultsAfter cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis, we found that non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were still the greatest threats in the elderly, followed by injuries. As for 136 predicted causes, more than half of NCDs increased obviously with age, less than a quarter of communicable, material, neonatal, and nutritional disorders or injuries had uptrend.ConclusionsThe findings display the health condition of the Chinese elderly in the future, which will provide critical information for scientific and sociological researches on preventing and reducing the risks of aging society.

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