• Elizabeth A Mann-Salinas, Mara M Baun, Janet C Meininger, Clinton K Murray, James K Aden, Steven E Wolf, and Charles E Wade.
• School of Nursing, University of Texas Health Science Center, Houston, Texas, USA.
• J Burn Care Res. 2013 Jan 1;34(1):31-43.

AbstractThe purpose of this study was to determine whether systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and American Burn Association (ABA) criteria predict sepsis in the burn patient and develop a model representing the best combination of novel clinical sepsis predictors. A retrospective, case-controlled, within-patient comparison of burn patients admitted to a single intensive care unit from January 2005 to September 2010 was made. Blood culture results were paired with documented sepsis: positive-sick, negative-sick (collectively defined as sick), and negative-not sick. Data for all predictors were collected for the 72 hours before blood culture. Variables were evaluated using regression and area under the curve (AUC) analyses. Fifty-nine subjects represented 177 culture periods. SIRS criteria were not discriminative: 98% of the subjects met criteria. ABA sepsis criteria were different on the day before (P = .004). The six best-fit variables identified for the model included heart rate > 130 beats per min, mean arterial pressure < 60 mm Hg, base deficit < -6 mEq/L, temperature < 36°C, use of vasoactive medications, and glucose > 150 mg/dl. The model was significant in predicting positive-sick and sick, with an AUC of 0.775 (P < .001) and 0.714 (P < .001), respectively; comparatively, the ABA criteria AUC was 0.619 (P = .028) and 0.597 (P = .035), respectively. Usefulness of the ABA criteria to predict sepsis is limited to the day before blood culture is obtained. A significant contribution of this research is the identification of six novel sepsis predictors for the burn patient.

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