• J Jamie Caro, Kristin Migliaccio-Walle, Judith A O'Brien, William Nova, Jennifer Kim, Ole Hauch, Eric Hillson, Hans Wedel, Ake Hjalmarson, Stephen Gottlieb, Prakash C Deedwania, John Wikstrand, and MERIT-HF Study Group.
• Caro Research Institute, Concord, Massachusetts 01742, USA.
• J. Card. Fail. 2005 Dec 1;11(9):647-56.

BackgroundThe MERIT-HF trial demonstrated improved survival and fewer hospitalizations for worsening heart failure with extended-release (ER) metoprolol succinate in patients with heart failure. This study sought to estimate the economic implications of this trial from a US perspective.Methods And ResultsA discrete event simulation was developed to examine the course of patients with heart failure. Characteristics of the population modeled, probabilities of hospitalization and death with standard therapy, and risk reductions with ER metoprolol succinate were obtained from Metoprolol CR/XL Randomized Intervention Trial in Chronic Heart Failure (MERIT-HF) and evaluated in weekly cycles. Direct medical costs were estimated from US databases in 2001 US dollars. Uncertainty in inputs was incorporated and analyses were carried out to estimate events prevented total and net costs. The model predicts that ER metoprolol succinate will prevent approximately 7 deaths and 15 hospitalizations from heart failure per 100 patients over 2 years. Compared with standard therapy alone, this translates to a cost reduction between $395 and $1112 per patient, depending on whether the costs of hospitalizations for other causes are included. Savings were maintained in 90% of the simulations.ConclusionThis analysis predicts that the positive effect of ER metoprolol succinate on mortality and morbidity demonstrated in MERIT-HF leads to substantial savings.

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