• Nozomi Harasawa and Toshiko Mizuno.
• Tokyo Women's Medical University, School of Nursing, Tokyo, Japan. Electronic address: harasawa.nozomi@twmu.ac.jp.
• Arch Gerontol Geriatr. 2014 Sep 1;59(2):264-71.

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to develop and test a scale for predicting POD in patients undergoing cerebrovascular surgery.MethodsThe predictive scale for POD was composed of 32 items reflecting the strongest risk factors as determined by a literature review. The NEECHAM Confusion Scale determined POD onset and severity.ResultsDelirium developed in 38 (31.1%) of the 122 patients in our sample. Logistic regression revealed the following risk factors: dehydration, age, disturbance of consciousness, underlying illness, and anxiety or depression. The final scale was weighted by referring to odds ratios. The area under the curve was 0.844 (95% CI=0.766-0.921). The possible total score on this scale was 20 points. A cutoff score of 11 was set for risk of POD (patients scoring over 12 were considered at higher risk). The median score was 8 (range: 4-9) in the non-delirium group and 13 (range: 9-16) in the delirium group (U=499.0; df=120; p<0.001). Scale scores were moderately correlated with delirium duration (ρ=0.532; p<0.001).ConclusionThe present scale is a promising a tool for predicting POD but needs to be studied further.Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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