• Detajin Junhasavasdikul, Pongdhep Theerawit, Atiporn Ingsathit, and Sumalee Kiatboonsri.
• Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, 270 Rama 6 Rd., Rajthevi, Bangkok, 10400, Thailand.
• J Crit Care. 2016 Jun 1; 33: 71-7.

PurposeTo find predictors of intensive care unit (ICU) requirement within the first 48 hours in newly diagnosed sepsis patients presenting at the emergency department.Materials And MethodsAnalysis of a prospective observational cohort was performed. We recruited new sepsis patients at the emergency department, and collected baseline characteristics and parameters. Variables were compared between patients: those that required ICU within 48 hours and those that did not. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent predictors.ResultsOut of 719 patients enrolled, 275 were confirmed to have sepsis. There were 107 patients (39%) that required ICU admission within 48 hours. Independent predictors for ICU requirement were: lower body temperature (P = .019), initial lactate (P = .02), 2-hour lactate clearance (P = .035), and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score without cardiovascular component (SOFA no CVS) (P < .001). The optimal cutoff values for the two strongest predictors were: SOFA no CVS ≥5 (adjusted OR, 5.3; 95% CI, 1.9-14.7) and initial lactate ≥1.9 mmol/L (adjusted OR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.2-8.9). We also proposed a combined "LACTIC score" with higher predictive ability.ConclusionsWe suggested a way to predict ICU requirement in sepsis patients and proposed a combined score that might be better than individual parameters. Further validation should be performed before using them clinically.Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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