• Marcelo Park, Alexandre Toledo Maciel, Danilo Teixeira Noritomi, Luciano Cesar Pontes de Azevedo, Leandro Utino Taniguchi, and Luiz Monteiro da Cruz Neto.
• Emergency Department, Intensive Care Unit, Hospital das Clínicas, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo 0563010, Brazil. mpark@uol.com.br
• J Crit Care. 2009 Dec 1;24(4):484-91.

PurposeThe aim of this study was to investigate the impact of acute Paco(2) temporal variation on the standard base excess (SBE) value in critically ill patients.MethodsA total of 265 patients were prospectively observed; 158 were allocated to the modeling group, and 107 were allocated to the validation group. Two models were developed in the modeling group (one including and one excluding Paco(2) as a variable determinant of SBE), and both were tested in the validation group.ResultsIn the modeling group, the mathematical model including SIDai, SIG, l-lactate, albumin, phosphate, and Paco(2) had a predictive superiority in comparison with the model without Paco(2) (R(2) = 0.978 and 0.916, respectively). In the validation group, the results were confirmed with significant F change statistics (R(2) change = 0.059, P < .001) between the model with and without Paco(2). A high correlation (R = 0.99, P < .001) and agreement (bias = -0.25 mEq/L, limits of agreement 95% = -0.72 to 0.22 mEq/L) were found between the model-predicted SBE value and the SBE calculated using the Van Slyke equation.ConclusionsAcute Paco(2) temporal variation is related to SBE changes in critically ill patients.

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