• Sturla Gjesdal, Kjell Haug, Peder R Ringdal, Stein Emil Vollset, and John Gunnar Maeland.
• Program for helseøkonomi og Seksjon for sosialmedisin. sturla.gjesdal@isf.uib.no
• Tidsskr. Nor. Laegeforen. 2005 Jun 30;125(13):1801-5.

BackgroundIn the late 1990s the incidence of new disability pensioners in Norway increased, especially among young people. This study assessed the risk and possible predictors of a transition to disability among long-term sickness absentees below 40.Material And MethodsThe study was carried out in a county with 10 % of Norway's population. All new long-term (i.e. more than 8 weeks) sickness absentees below 40 years over a six-month period in 1994 were included and followed up until year-end 1999. Socio-demographic and medical information were used as independent variables in Cox regression analysis with disability as the outcome variable.ResultsThe five-year risk of disability was 7.9 % (95 % CI 5.8 % - 10.0 %) for men and 10.3 % (95 % CI 8.5 % - 13.1 %) for women. Among young persons on long-term sickness absence with psychiatric diagnoses the rate of disability was 24 % (95 % CI 15 - 33 %) for men and 11 % (95 % CI 6 - 16 %) for women. In musculoskeletal disorders the risk of disability was 5 % (95 % CI 3 - 7 %) for men and 11 % (95 % CI 8 - 14 %) for women. Women had higher rates of disability among all subgroups of musculoskeletal disorders. Regression analysis showed no gender effect. The following variables increased the risk of disability pension: psychiatric diagnosis (only for men), low income (both genders), increasing age (only women) and previous long-term absence (only for men).InterpretationA moderate risk of disability pension was found among young people on long-term sick leave. Special interventions targeted at men with psychiatric diagnoses and women with musculoskeletal disorders should be considered.

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