• Epidemiol. Infect. · May 2007

    Clinical Trial

    Understanding the dynamics of Ebola epidemics.

    • J Legrand, R F Grais, P Y Boelle, A J Valleron, and A Flahault.
    • INSERM, UMR-S 707, Paris, France. legrand@u707.jussieu.fr
    • Epidemiol. Infect. 2007 May 1;135(4):610-21.

    AbstractEbola is a highly lethal virus, which has caused at least 14 confirmed outbreaks in Africa between 1976 and 2006. Using data from two epidemics [in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 1995 and in Uganda in 2000], we built a mathematical model for the spread of Ebola haemorrhagic fever epidemics taking into account transmission in different epidemiological settings. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) to be 2.7 (95% CI 1.9-2.8) for the 1995 epidemic in DRC, and 2.7 (95% CI 2.5-4.1) for the 2000 epidemic in Uganda. For each epidemic, we quantified transmission in different settings (illness in the community, hospitalization, and traditional burial) and simulated various epidemic scenarios to explore the impact of control interventions on a potential epidemic. A key parameter was the rapid institution of control measures. For both epidemic profiles identified, increasing hospitalization rate reduced the predicted epidemic size.

      Pubmed     Full text   Copy Citation     Plaintext  

      Add institutional full text...

    Notes

     
    Knowledge, pearl, summary or comment to share?
    300 characters remaining
    help        
    You can also include formatting, links, images and footnotes in your notes
    • Simple formatting can be added to notes, such as *italics*, _underline_ or **bold**.
    • Superscript can be denoted by <sup>text</sup> and subscript <sub>text</sub>.
    • Numbered or bulleted lists can be created using either numbered lines 1. 2. 3., hyphens - or asterisks *.
    • Links can be included with: [my link to pubmed](http://pubmed.com)
    • Images can be included with: ![alt text](https://bestmedicaljournal.com/study_graph.jpg "Image Title Text")
    • For footnotes use [^1](This is a footnote.) inline.
    • Or use an inline reference [^1] to refer to a longer footnote elseweher in the document [^1]: This is a long footnote..

    hide…