• Baruch Vainshelboim, Jose Oliveira, Benjamin Daniel Fox, and Mordechai Reuven Kramer.
• Pulmonary Institute, Rabin Medical Center, Beilinson Hospital, Petach Tikva, Israel. Research Center in Physical Activity, Health and Leisure (CIAFEL), Faculty of Sport, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal. baruch.v1981@gmail.com.
• Respir Care. 2016 Aug 1; 61 (8): 1100-9.

BackgroundIdiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic, progressive, and fatal interstitial lung disease associated with poor prognosis and limited effective treatment options. Reliable predictors of outcome in daily clinical practice are needed to determine high-risk patients for urgent lung transplantation referral. This study aimed to identify practical prognostic predictors of mortality using cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in IPF subjects.MethodsThirty-four subjects with IPF (22 men and 12 women), median age 68 (range 50-81) y were prospectively studied. At baseline, all subjects were assessed with CPET and were followed up for 40 months from baseline. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was conducted to determine cut-off points of CPET variables for mortality, Cox regression analysis for survival using a log-rank test, and hazard ratio for death using a Wald test.ResultsPeak work rate <62 watts (P = .005), peak V̇O2 ≤13.8 mL/kg/min (P = .031), tidal volume reserve ≤0.48 L/breath (P = .010), minute ventilation to carbon dioxide (V̇E)/V̇CO2 ) ratio at the anaerobic threshold >34 (P = .02), and V̇E)/V̇O2 nadir >34 (P = .002) were detected as cut-off points associated with mortality. Non-survivor subjects were characterized by higher dyspnea levels, the presence of pulmonary hypertension assessed by echocardiography, pronounced inefficient ventilatory pattern, lower exercise capacity, and more severe desaturation during physical exertion. By the end of the study, 11 subjects (7 women and 4 men) died. Overall mean survival was 60%, 33.7 months (95% CI 30.2-37.2).ConclusionsThis study provides simple, practical, and novel cut-off points for CPET as predictors of prognosis to identify high-risk IPF subjects. Impairment in exercise capacity and abnormal ventilatory responses during CPET were associated with poorer survival in IPF subjects. The findings suggest considering the use of CPET for IPF risk stratification and prediction of prognosis. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT01499745.).Copyright © 2016 by Daedalus Enterprises.

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