• Christopher R deFilippi, Robert H Christenson, Willem J Kop, John S Gottdiener, Min Zhan, and Stephen L Seliger.
• University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA. cdefilip@medicine.umaryland.edu
• J. Am. Coll. Cardiol. 2011 Sep 27; 58 (14): 1497-506.

ObjectivesThe goal of this paper was to determine whether assessment of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) enhances prediction of new-onset heart failure (HF) and cardiovascular mortality over and above N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level in older adults.BackgroundElevated NT-proBNP levels are common in older adults and are associated with increased risk of HF.MethodsNT-proBNP and LVEF were measured in 4,137 older adults free of HF. Repeat measures of NT-proBNP were performed 2 to 3 years later and echocardiography was repeated 5 years later (n = 2,375), with a median follow-up of 10.7 years. The addition of an abnormal (<55%) LVEF (n = 317 [7.7%]) to initially elevated or rising NT-proBNP levels was evaluated to determine risk of HF or cardiovascular mortality. Changes in NT-proBNP levels were also assessed for estimating the risk of conversion from a normal to abnormal LVEF.ResultsFor participants with a low baseline NT-proBNP level (<190 pg/ml; n = 2,918), addition of an abnormal LVEF did not improve the estimation of risk of HF and identified a moderate increase in adjusted risk for cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio: 1.69 [95% confidence interval: 1.22 to 2.31]). Among those whose NT-proBNP subsequently increased ≥25% to ≥190 pg/ml, an abnormal LVEF was likewise associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality but not HF. Participants with an initially high NT-proBNP level (≥190 pg/ml) were at greater risk overall for both outcomes, and those with an abnormal LVEF were at the highest risk. However, an abnormal LVEF did not improve model classification or risk stratification for either endpoint when added to demographic factors and change in NT-proBNP. An initially elevated NT-proBNP or rising level was associated with an increased risk of developing an abnormal LVEF.ConclusionsAssessment of LVEF in HF-free older adults based on NT-proBNP levels should be considered on an individual basis, as such assessments do not routinely improve prognostication.Copyright © 2011 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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