• Greg D Sacks, Aaron J Dawes, Susan L Ettner, Robert H Brook, Craig R Fox, Melinda Maggard-Gibbons, Clifford Y Ko, and Marcia M Russell.
• *Department of Surgery, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, CA †VA Greater Los Angeles Healthcare System, Los Angeles, CA ‡Department of Health Policy and Management, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA §Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA ||RAND Corporation, Los Angeles, CA ¶Anderson School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles, CA #Department of Psychology, College of Letters and Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA.
• Ann. Surg. 2016 Dec 1; 264 (6): 896-903.

ObjectiveTo determine how surgeons' perceptions of treatment risks and benefits influence their decisions to operate.BackgroundLittle is known about what makes one surgeon choose to operate on a patient and another chooses not to operate.MethodsUsing an online study, we presented a national sample of surgeons (N = 767) with four detailed clinical vignettes (mesenteric ischemia, gastrointestinal bleed, bowel obstruction, appendicitis) where the best treatment option was uncertain and asked them to: (1) judge the risks (probability of serious complications) and benefits (probability of recovery) for operative and nonoperative management and (2) decide whether or not they would recommend an operation.ResultsAcross all clinical vignettes, surgeons varied markedly in both their assessments of the risks and benefits of operative and nonoperative management (narrowest range 4%-100% for all four predictions across vignettes) and in their decisions to operate (49%-85%). Surgeons were less likely to operate as their perceptions of operative risk increased [absolute difference (AD) = -29.6% from 1.0 standard deviation below to 1.0 standard deviation above mean (95% confidence interval, CI: -31.6, -23.8)] and their perceptions of nonoperative benefit increased [AD = -32.6% (95% CI: -32.8,--28.9)]. Surgeons were more likely to operate as their perceptions of operative benefit increased [AD = 18.7% (95% CI: 12.6, 21.5)] and their perceptions of nonoperative risk increased [AD = 32.7% (95% CI: 28.7, 34.0)]. Differences in risk/benefit perceptions explained 39% of the observed variation in decisions to operate across the four vignettes.ConclusionsGiven the same clinical scenarios, surgeons' perceptions of treatment risks and benefits vary and are highly predictive of their decisions to operate.

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