• J M Jones, J Maryosh, S Johnstone, and J Templeton.
• Department of Mathematics, Keele University, Staffordshire, England.
• J Trauma. 1995 Jan 1; 38 (1): 118-22.

ObjectiveTo identify characteristics of blunt trauma admissions associated with mortality and to derive a linear logistic model for predicting the probability of mortality.DesignA prospective observational study.Materials And MethodsData were collected on blunt trauma patients admitted via the Accident and Emergency Department, North Staffordshire Hospital Centre. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed of potential risk factors associated with mortality.Measurements And Main ResultsThe main outcome variable was survival or death occurring in hospital within 30 days of admission. Injury Severity Score, age, Revised Trauma Score, and place of injury (road traffic, home, or elsewhere) were independently related to mortality. The effect of age on mortality was best described using three categories: 0-64 excluding 15-24, 15-24, 65+. The survival probability model suggests that a person whose injury occurs in the home has a lower probability of survival than a patient with similar age and trauma scores who is involved in a road traffic accident. A model validation check indicated good agreement between model predictions and patient outcomes.ConclusionsThe authors propose that use of this model may provide a more accurate evaluation of the mortality of British trauma admissions than would be obtained using models based on data from American trauma cases.

23 keywords...

hide…