• H Kern, U Redlich, H Hotz, C von Heymann, J Grosse, W Konertz, and W J Kox.
• Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care, University Hospital Charité, Campus Mitte, Humboldt University of Berlin, Schumannstrasse 20/21, 10098 Berlin, Germany. hartmut.kern@charite.de
• Intensive Care Med. 2001 Feb 1; 27 (2): 407-15.

ObjectiveTo identify the risk for prolonged mechanical ventilation in cardiac surgical patients.DesignProspective study with retrospective combination of a second database.PatientsSix hundred and eighty-seven patients after cardiac surgery over a period of 12 months.MeasurementsDemographic data were recorded preoperatively, and surgical procedures intraoperatively using a surgical database designed for quality control. Length of ICU and hospital stay, and hospital outcome were recorded. Severity of illness was assessed daily using APACHE II, SAPS II, and Organ Failure Score. Intensity of treatment and nursing care was monitored by means of the Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using logistic regression. The predictive value of the identified variables was tested by the Wilcoxon test using the receiver operating characteristic curve.Main ResultsSixty-two patients (9.0%) were ventilated for > 48 h and accounted for 42.8% of the total costs in the ICU. The pre- and intraoperatively collected data produced a model with weak predictive capacity for prolonged ventilation [area under curve (AUC) 73.22 and 71.08, respectively]. The use of TISS and SAPS postoperatively resulted in an effective model of prediction (AUC 93.76). Adding the occurrence of reoperation, reintubation, emergency transfusion, intraaortic balloon pumping, and need for total parenteral nutrition to the model further improved its predictive capacity (AUC 94.74).ConclusionsThe present results strongly suggest that data collected postoperatively using established scoring systems as well as documented events of high clinical impact for risk assessment and quality control are reliable predictors of prolonged ventilation.

26 keywords...

hide…