• Ana Royuela, Francisco M Kovacs, Carlos Campillo, Montserrat Casamitjana, Alfonso Muriel, and Víctor Abraira.
• CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), C/ Melchor Fernandez Almagro 3-5, 28029 Madrid, Spain; Unidad de Bioestadística Clínica, Hospital Ramón y Cajal, IRICYS, C/ Colmenar Viejo, 9, 28031 Madrid, Spain; Spanish Back Pain Research Network, Paseo de Mallorca 36, 07012 Palma de Mallorca, Spain. Electronic address: ana.royuela@hrc.es.
• Spine J. 2014 Aug 1; 14 (8): 1588-600.

Background ContextIn the context of shared decision-making, a valid estimation of the probability that a given patient will improve after a specific treatment is valuable.PurposeTo develop models that predict the improvement of spinal pain, referred pain, and disability in patients with subacute or chronic neck or low back pain undergoing a conservative treatment.Study Design And SettingAnalysis of data from a prospective registry in routine practice.Patient SampleAll patients who had been discharged after receiving a conservative treatment within the Spanish National Health Service (SNHS) (n=8,778).Outcome MeasuresSpinal pain, referred pain, and disability were assessed before the conservative treatment and at discharge by the use of previously validated methods.MethodsImprovement in spinal pain, referred pain, and disability was defined as a reduction in score greater than the minimal clinically important change. A predictive model that included demographic, clinical, and work-related variables was developed for each outcome using multivariate logistic regression. Missing data were addressed using multiple imputation. Discrimination and calibration were assessed for each model. The models were validated by bootstrap, and nomograms were developed.ResultsThe following variables showed a predictive value in the three models: baseline scores for pain and disability, pain duration, having undergone X-ray, having undergone spine surgery, and receiving financial assistance for neck or low back pain. Discrimination of the three models ranged from slight to moderate, and calibration was good.ConclusionsA registry in routine practice can be used to develop models that estimate the probability of improvement for each individual patient undergoing a specific form of treatment. Generalizing this approach to other treatments can be valuable for shared decision making.Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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