• Thomas Luebke and Jan Brunkwall.
• Department of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery, University Hospital of Cologne, Cologne, Germany. Electronic address: Thomas.luebke@uk-koeln.de.
• World Neurosurg. 2016 Aug 1; 92: 513520.e2513-520.e2.

BackgroundThe primary study objective was to develop a microsimulation model to predict preventable first-ever and recurrent strokes and mortality for a population of medically or surgically managed octogenarians with substantial (>60%) asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis and comparing an adherent with a real-world nonadherent best medical treatment (BMT) regimen subjected to sex.MethodsA Monte Carlo microsimulation model was constructed with a 14-year time horizon and with 10,000 patients. Probabilities and values for clinical outcomes were obtained from the current literature.ResultsThe stratification of the microsimulation estimates by treatment strategy within the female group of octogenarians showed a statistically significant lower stroke rate during follow-up for carotid endarterectomy (CEA) compared with nonadherent BMT (P < 0.0001) as well as compared with adherent BMT (P < 0.0001). In male octogenarians, the CEA strategy was also associated with statistically significant lower stroke rates compared with adherent and nonadherent BMT (P < 0.0001 and P < 0.0001, respectively). For each treatment strategy, female octogenarians had a statistically significant longer overall long-term survival compared with male octogenarians (P < 0.0001, respectively). In terms of stratification by sex, in octogenarian men and women, long-term survival was significantly better for adherent BMT compared with nonadherent BMT, and CEA was associated with a significant better long-term survival compared with nonadherent BMT.ConclusionsIn the present microsimulation, in real-world drug adherence, it was likely that a strategy of early endarterectomy was beneficial in octogenarians with significant asymptomatic carotid artery disease compared with BMT alone.Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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