• Ognjen Gajic, Bekele Afessa, B Taylor Thompson, Fernando Frutos-Vivar, Michael Malinchoc, Gordon D Rubenfeld, André Esteban, Antonio Anzueto, Rolf D Hubmayr, and Second International Study of Mechanical Ventilation and ARDS-net Investigators.
• Mayo Clinic, 200 First Street SW, Rochester, Minnesota 55905, USA. gajic.ognjen@mayo.edu
• Crit Care. 2007 Jan 1; 11 (3): R53.

IntroductionPrediction of death and prolonged mechanical ventilation is important in terms of projecting resource utilization and in establishing protocols for clinical studies of acute lung injury (ALI). We aimed to identify risk factors for a combined end-point of death and/or prolonged ventilator dependence and developed an ALI-specific prediction model.MethodsIn this retrospective analysis of three multicenter clinical studies, we identified predictors of death or ventilator dependence from variables prospectively recorded during the first three days of mechanical ventilation. After the prediction model was derived in an international cohort of patients with ALI, it was validated in two independent samples of patients enrolled in a clinical trial involving 17 academic centers and a North American population-based cohort.ResultsA combined end-point of death and/or ventilator dependence at 14 days or later occurred in 68% of patients in the international cohort, 60% of patients in the clinical trial, and 59% of patients in the population-based cohort. In the derivation cohort, a model based on age, oxygenation index on day 3, and cardiovascular failure on day 3 predicted death and/or ventilator dependence. The prediction model performed better in the clinical trial validation cohort (area under the receiver operating curve 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.84) than in the population-based validation cohort (0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.65 to 0.76).ConclusionA model based on age and cardiopulmonary function three days after the intubation is able to predict, moderately well, a combined end-point of death and/or prolonged mechanical ventilation in patients with ALI.

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