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- C P Schmertmann, A A Amankwaa, and R D Long.
- Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University, Tallahassee 32306-2240, USA. schmertmann@fsu.edu
- Demography. 1998 Nov 1; 35 (4): 445-63.
AbstractMuch of the debate about the costs and benefits of "three-strikes" laws for repeat felony offenders is implicitly demographic, relying on unexamined assumptions about prison population dynamics. However, even state-of-the-art analysis has omitted important demographic details. We construct a multistate life-table model of population flows to and from prisons, incorporating age-specific transition rates estimated from administrative data from Florida. We use the multistate life-table model to investigate patterns of prison population growth and aging under many variants of three-strikes laws. Our analysis allows us to quantify these demographic changes and suggests that the aging of prison populations under three-strikes policies will significantly undermine their long-run effectiveness.
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