• David Jo Teubner, Julie Considine, Paul Hakendorf, Susan Kim, and Andrew D Bersten.
• Emergency Medicine and Prehospital Science, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
• Emerg Med Australas. 2015 Aug 1;27(4):300-6.

ObjectivesTo derive and validate a mortality prediction model from information available at ED triage.MethodsMultivariable logistic regression of variables from administrative datasets to predict inpatient mortality of patients admitted through an ED. Accuracy of the model was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. The model was derived, internally validated and externally validated. Derivation and internal validation were in a tertiary referral hospital and external validation was in an urban community hospital.ResultsThe ROC-AUC for the derivation set was 0.859 (95% CI 0.856-0.865), for the internal validation set was 0.848 (95% CI 0.840-0.856) and for the external validation set was 0.837 (95% CI 0.823-0.851). Calibration assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was good.ConclusionsThe model successfully predicts inpatient mortality from information available at the point of triage in the ED.© 2015 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

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