• Carlos José Alves, Gilberto Paulo Pereira Franco, Carla Tyene Nakata, Gabriele Laura Galvão Costa, Giovanna Laura Galvão Costa, Maíra Sant'Anna Genaro, Gisele Agostini, Jamila Luciana da Luz, and Marieli Fernanda Martins Leite.
• Centro de Terapia Intensiva Adulto, Hospital Jardim Cuiabá, Cuiabá, MT, Brasil.
• Rev Bras Ter Intensiva. 2009 Mar 1; 21 (1): 1-8.

ObjectiveThe elderly constitute a population with their own features and frequent admissions in intensive care units. This study has the objective to evaluate the ability to predict the survival of these patients through the APACHE II, UNICAMP II, SAPS II and SAPS 3 indexes, global and Central America/South equations.MethodsElderly patients admitted from 01/01/2006 to 12/3/2006, defined as age > 60 years, were included in this study. Those who were readmitted were excluded. The rate of lethality standardized, calibration and discrimination for each index in the remaining patients were analysed. The outcome were death or hospital discharge.ResultsThree hundred eighty six elderly patients were included in this study, being 36 excluded by readmission, remaining 350 for analysis. The rate of lethality standardized came near to the unit in all indexes, except the SAPS II (TLP=1.5455) which underestimated the lethality. The calibration, via Hosmer-Lemeshow tests was inadequate (p < 0.05), except for the UNICAMP II (p > 0.5). On the calibration curve, the models have distanced themselves from the pattern line. All of them presented an excellent discrimination via receiver operating characteristics curves (> 0.8).ConclusionsIn the studied population, the models presented an excellent discrimination and inadequate calibration. SAPS II underestimated the lethality.

10 keywords...

hide…