• Bartolome Celli, Kay Tetzlaff, Gerard Criner, Michael I Polkey, Frank Sciurba, Richard Casaburi, Ruth Tal-Singer, Ariane Kawata, Debora Merrill, Stephen Rennard, and COPD Biomarker Qualification Consortium.
• 1 Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
• Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med. 2016 Dec 15; 194 (12): 148314931483-1493.

RationaleThe 6-minute-walk distance (6MWD) test predicts mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Whether variability in study type (observational vs. interventional) or region performed limits use of the test as a stratification tool or outcome measure for therapeutic trials is unclear.ObjectivesTo analyze the original data from several large observational studies and from randomized clinical trials with bronchodilators to support the qualification of the 6MWD test as a drug development tool in COPD.MethodsOriginal data from 14,497 patients with COPD from six observational (n = 9,641) and five interventional (n = 4,856) studies larger than 100 patients and longer than 6 months in duration were included. The geographical, anthropometrics, FEV1, dyspnea, comorbidities, and health status scores were measured. Associations between 6MWD and mortality, hospitalizations, and exacerbations adjusted by study type, age, and sex were evaluated. Thresholds for outcome prediction were calculated using receiver operating curves. The change in 6MWD after inhaled bronchodilator treatment and surgical lung volume reduction were analyzed to evaluate the responsiveness of the test as an outcome measure.Measurements And Main ResultsThe 6MWD was significantly lower in nonsurvivors, those hospitalized, or who exacerbated compared with those without events at 6, 12, and greater than 12 months. At these time points, the 6MWD receiver operating characteristic curve-area under the curve to predict mortality was 0.71, 0.70, and 0.68 and for hospitalizations was 0.61, 0.60, and 0.59, respectively. After treatment, the 6MWD was not different between placebo and bronchodilators but increased after surgical lung volume reduction compared with medical therapy. Variation across study types (observational or therapeutic) or regions did not confound the ability of 6MWD to predict outcome.ConclusionsThe 6MWD test can be used to stratify patients with COPD for clinical trials and interventions aimed at modifying exacerbations, hospitalizations, or death.

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