• Priyal Amin, Linda Levin, Tolly Epstein, Pat Ryan, Grace LeMasters, Gurjit Khurana Hershey, Tina Reponen, Manuel Villareal, James Lockey, and David I Bernstein.
• Division of Immunology, Allergy and Rheumatology, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, Ohio.
• J Allergy Clin Immunol Pract. 2014 Nov 1; 2 (6): 709-15.

BackgroundThe Asthma Predictive Index (API) and persistent wheezing phenotypes are associated with childhood asthma, but previous studies have not assessed their ability to predict objectively confirmed asthma.ObjectiveTo determine whether the University of Cincinnati API Index (ucAPI) and/or persistent wheezing at age 3 can accurately predict objectively confirmed asthma at age 7.MethodsData from the Cincinnati Childhood Allergy and Air Pollution Study, a high-risk prospective birth cohort, was used. Asthma was defined as parent-reported or physician-diagnosed asthma objectively confirmed by a change in FEV1 of ≥12% after bronchodilator or a positive methacholine challenge (PC20 ≤ 4 mg/mL); or as prior treatment with daily asthma controller medication(s). Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate the relationship between confirmed asthma at age 7 and a positive ucAPI (adapted and modified from prior published API definitions) and persistent wheezing at age 3.ResultsAt age 7, 103 of 589 children (17.5%) satisfied the criteria for asthma. Confirmed asthma at age 7 was significantly associated with a positive ucAPI (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 13.3 [95% CI, 7.0-25.2]; P < .01) and the persistent wheezing phenotype (aOR 9.8 [95% CI, 4.9-19.5]; P < .01) at age 3. Allergic persistent wheezing was associated with a significantly higher risk of asthma (aOR 10.4 [95% CI, 4.1-26.0]; P < .01) than nonallergic persistent wheezing (aOR 5.4 [95% CI, 2.04-14.06]; P < .01).ConclusionBoth a positive ucAPI and persistent wheeze at age 3 were associated with objectively confirmed asthma at age 7; however, the highest risk was associated with ucAPI. These results demonstrate the ucAPI as a clinically useful tool for predicting future asthma in school-age children.Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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