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- Quirino Lai, Daniele Nicolini, Milton Inostroza Nunez, Samuele Iesari, Pierre Goffette, Andrea Agostini, Andrea Giovagnoni, Marco Vivarelli, and Jan Lerut.
- *Starzl Unit of Abdominal Transplantation, University Hospitals Saint Luc, Université catholique Louvain, Brussels, Belgium†Department of General Surgery and Organ Transplantation, L'Aquila University, L'Aquila‡Unit of Hepatobiliary surgery and Transplantation, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria "Ospedali Riuniti," Torrette Ancona, Italy§Department of Radiology, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria "Ospedali Riuniti," Torrette Ancona, Italy.
- Ann. Surg. 2016 Nov 1; 264 (5): 787-796.
ObjectiveA novel and easy prognostic score based on the combination of pre-operatively available variables in patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) waiting for liver transplantation (LT) has been developed from a long waiting time (WT) training set and then validated in a short-WT set.Summary Of Background DataThe role of radiological response to loco-regional therapies, alpha-fetoprotein modification, inflammatory markers, and length of WT has been recently shown to be important selection criteria for the risk of intention-to-treat (ITT)-death and recurrence.MethodsThe training set consisted of 179 HCC patients listed for LT during the period January 2000 to December 2012 from the UCL Brussels Transplant Centre; the validation set consisted of 110 patients listed during the period January 2005 to December 2014 from the Ancona Liver Centre.ResultsThe proposed Time-Radiological-response-Alpha-fetoprotein-INflammation (TRAIN) score was the best predictor of microvascular invasion. A TRAIN score ≥1.0 excellently stratified both the investigated populations in terms of ITT and recurrence survivals. When compared with Milan criteria, the proposed score allowed obtaining an increase of potentially transplantable patients (+8.9% in training set and 24.6% in validation set) without additive recurrence risks.ConclusionsThe proposed TRAIN score is an easy selection tool based on variables available before LT. This score enables the selection process to be refined in the 2 different scenarios of long and short WT. In case of longer WT, the score is better at predicting risk of death during the WT; in case of short WT, the score is better at identifying risk of post-LT recurrence.
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