• Laura A Schieve, Owen Devine, Coleen A Boyle, Joann R Petrini, and Lee Warner.
• National Center on Birth Defects and Developmental Disabilities, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, MS E-86, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. lschieve@cdc.gov
• Am. J. Epidemiol. 2009 Dec 1; 170 (11): 1396-407.

AbstractInfertility treatments that include ovulation stimulation, both assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs) and non-ART ovulation stimulation, are associated with increased risks of multiple birth and concomitant sequelae and adverse outcomes, even among singletons. While a US surveillance system for ART-induced births is ongoing, no population-based tracking system exists for births resulting from non-ART treatments. The authors developed a multistage model to estimate the uncertain proportion of US infants born in 2005 who were conceived by using non-ART ovulation treatments. Using published surveillance data, they estimated proportions of US multiple births conceived naturally and by ART and assumed that the remainder were conceived with non-ART treatments. They used Bayesian meta-analyses to summarize published clinical studies on the multiple-gestation risk associated with non-ART ovulation treatments, applied a fetal survival factor, and used this multiple-birth risk estimate and their own estimate of the proportion of US multiple births attributable to non-ART ovulation stimulation to estimate the total (and, through subtraction, singleton) proportion of infants conceived with such treatments. On the basis of the model, the authors estimate that 4.6% of US infants born in 2005 (95% uncertainty range: 2.8%-7.1%) resulted from non-ART ovulation treatments. Notably, this figure is 4 times greater than the ART contribution.

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