• Marc Brisson, Jean-François Laprise, Mélanie Drolet, Nicolas Van de Velde, Eduardo L Franco, Erich V Kliewer, Gina Ogilvie, Shelley L Deeks, and Marie-Claude Boily.
• SP-POS, Centre de recherche du CHU de Québec, Québec, Canada. marc.brisson@uresp.ulaval.ca
• Vaccine. 2013 Aug 20; 31 (37): 3863-71.

BackgroundThe quadrivalent and bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are now licensed in several countries. We compared the cost-effectiveness of the HPV vaccines to provide evidence for policy decisions.MethodsWe developed HPV-ADVISE, a multi-type individual-based transmission-dynamic model of HPV infection and disease (anogenital warts, and cervical, anogenital and oropharyngeal cancers). We calibrated the model to sexual behavior and epidemiologic data from Canada, and estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost and costs ($CAN 2010) from the literature. Vaccine-type efficacy was based on a systematic literature review. The analysis was performed from the healthcare provider perspective, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. Predictions are presented using the median [10th;90th percentiles] of simulations.ResultsUnder base-case assumptions (vaccinating 10-year-old girls, 80% coverage, $95/dose), using the quadrivalent and bivalent vaccines is estimated to cost $15,528 [12,056;19,140] and $20,182 [15,531;25,240] per QALY-gained, respectively. At equal price, the quadrivalent vaccine is more cost-effective than bivalent under all scenarios investigated, except when assuming longer duration of protection for the bivalent and minimal anogenital warts burden. Under base-case assumptions, the maximum additional cost per dose for the quadrivalent vaccine to remain more cost-effective than the bivalent is $32 [17;46] (using a $40,000/QALY-gained threshold). Results were most sensitive to discounting, time-horizon, differences in durations of protection and anogenital warts burden.ConclusionsVaccinating pre-adolescent girls against HPV is predicted to be highly cost-effective. If equally priced, the quadrivalent is the most economically desirable vaccine. However, ultimately, the most cost-effective HPV vaccine will be determined by their relative price.Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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