• A Melegaro and W J Edmunds.
• Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency, Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, 61 Colindale Avenue, London NW9 5EQ, UK. alessia.melegaro@hpa.org.uk
• Vaccine. 2004 Oct 22; 22 (31-32): 4203-14.

AimTo establish whether universal vaccination of infants with the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine is likely to be cost-effective from the perspective of the health care provider (NHS).MethodTwo hypothetical cohorts--one vaccinated and one unvaccinated--were followed over their lifetime, and the expected net costs and benefits (measured in terms of life-years and quality adjusted life years (QALY) gained) were compared in the two cohorts. The impact of indirect effects of the vaccine, such as herd immunity and serotype replacement, were investigated and their relative importance was assessed by performing univariate sensitivity analysis and multivariate Monte Carlo simulations.ResultsUnder base-case assumptions (no herd immunity and no serotype replacement) the programme is not expected to be cost-effective from the NHS perspective at the current price of the vaccine (assumed 30 pounds per dose, three-dose programme). A reduction of the cost of the vaccine to half of its current level could bring the cost per QALY gained within normally acceptable ranges. If the burden of disease is significantly underestimated by current surveillance systems, then the cost per QALY gained approaches acceptable levels at the current vaccine price. Herd immunity may substantially reduce the burden of pneumococcal disease, particularly of pneumonia among the elderly, leading to a significant improvement in the cost per life year and QALY gained. Serotype replacement would partly offset these benefits, although only with a complete substitution of vaccine types with non-vaccine types and a low level of herd immunity, would pneumococcal vaccination programme would not be cost-effective.ConclusionsConclusions on the cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine are sensitive to assumptions regarding the current burden of pneumococcal disease and the future impact that vaccination will have in the unvaccinated and on the future serotype distribution. This study quantifies, for the first time, how these indirect effects may change the cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination.

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