• Xuejun Shen, Limin Ou, Xiaojun Chen, Xin Zhang, and Xuerui Tan.
• Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong Province, China.
• Plos One. 2013 Jan 1; 8 (4): e60601.

ObjectiveThe objectives of this study were to forecast epidemic peaks of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in China using the grey disaster model, to evaluate its feasibility of predicting the epidemic tendency of notifiable diseases.MethodsAccording to epidemiological features, the GM(1,1) model and DGM model were used to build the grey disaster model based on the incidence data of typhoid and paratyphoid fever collected from the China Health Statistical Yearbook. Model fitting accuracy test was used to evaluate the performance of these two models. Then, the next catastrophe date was predicted by the better model.ResultsThe simulation results showed that DGM model was better than GM(1,1) model in our data set. Using the DGM model, we predicted the next epidemic peak time will occur between 2023 to 2025.ConclusionThe grey disaster model can predict the typhoid and paratyphoid fever epidemic time precisely, which may provide valuable information for disease prevention and control.

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