• Hamed Asadi, Hong Kuan Kok, Seamus Looby, Paul Brennan, Alan O'Hare, and John Thornton.
• Neurointerventional Service, Department of Radiology, Beaumont Hospital, Dublin, Ireland; School of Medicine, Faculty of Health, Deakin University, Waurn Ponds, Australia. Electronic address: asadi.hamed@gmail.com.
• World Neurosurg. 2016 Dec 1; 96: 562-569.e1.

PurposeTo identify factors influencing outcome in brain arteriovenous malformations (BAVM) treated with endovascular embolization. We also assessed the feasibility of using machine learning techniques to prognosticate and predict outcome and compared this to conventional statistical analyses.MethodsA retrospective study of patients undergoing endovascular treatment of BAVM during a 22-year period in a national neuroscience center was performed. Clinical presentation, imaging, procedural details, complications, and outcome were recorded. The data was analyzed with artificial intelligence techniques to identify predictors of outcome and assess accuracy in predicting clinical outcome at final follow-up.ResultsOne-hundred ninety-nine patients underwent treatment for BAVM with a mean follow-up duration of 63 months. The commonest clinical presentation was intracranial hemorrhage (56%). During the follow-up period, there were 51 further hemorrhagic events, comprising spontaneous hemorrhage (n = 27) and procedural related hemorrhage (n = 24). All spontaneous events occurred in previously embolized BAVMs remote from the procedure. Complications included ischemic stroke in 10%, symptomatic hemorrhage in 9.8%, and mortality rate of 4.7%. Standard regression analysis model had an accuracy of 43% in predicting final outcome (mortality), with the type of treatment complication identified as the most important predictor. The machine learning model showed superior accuracy of 97.5% in predicting outcome and identified the presence or absence of nidal fistulae as the most important factor.ConclusionsBAVMs can be treated successfully by endovascular techniques or combined with surgery and radiosurgery with an acceptable risk profile. Machine learning techniques can predict final outcome with greater accuracy and may help individualize treatment based on key predicting factors.Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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