• Gaya Spolverato, Alessandro Vitale, Aslam Ejaz, David Cosgrove, Darren Cowzer, Umberto Cillo, and Timothy M Pawlik.
• Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Johns Hopkins Hospital, 600 N. Wolfe Street, Blalock 688, Baltimore, MD, 21287, USA.
• J. Gastrointest. Surg. 2015 Sep 1; 19 (9): 1668-75.

BackgroundWe sought to estimate the cost-effectiveness of hepatic resection (HR) (strategy A) relative to surveillance plus 6 months of additional systemic chemotherapy (sCT) (strategy B) for patients with colorectal disappearing liver metastases (DLM).MethodsA Markov model was developed using data from a systematic literature review. Three base cases were evaluated: (1) a 60-year-old patient with three lesions in the right hemi-liver who underwent 6 months of sCT, had normalized carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and was diagnosed with DLM through a computed tomography (CT) scan; (2) a 60-year-old patient with three lesions in the right hemi-liver who underwent 6 months of sCT, had normalized CEA, and was diagnosed with DLM through a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan; and (3) a 60-year-old patient with three lesions in the right hemi-liver who underwent 6 months of sCT plus hepatic artery infusion (HAI), had normalized CEA, and was diagnosed with DLM through a MRI scan. The outcomes evaluated were quality-adjusted life months (QALMs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and net health benefit (NHB).ResultsThe NHB of strategy A versus strategy B was positive in base case 1 (7.7 QALMs, ICER $34.449/quality-adjusted life year (QALY)) and base case 2 (1.6 QALMs, ICER $43,948/QALY). In contrast it was negative (-0.2 QALMs, ICER $72,474/QALY) for base case 3. Monte Carlo simulation showed that strategy B is acceptable only in old patients (>60 years) with normalized CEA and MRI-based diagnosis. In younger patients, strategy B may reach cost-effectiveness only after sCT plus HAI.ConclusionSurveillance of DLM after sCT was more beneficial and cost-effective among patients >60 years with multiple factors predictive of true complete pathological response, such as normalization of CEA, HAI therapy, BMI ≤30 kg/m(2), and diagnosis of DLM made through MRI.

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