• Michele McGrady, Christopher M Reid, Louise Shiel, Rory Wolfe, Umberto Boffa, Danny Liew, Duncan J Campbell, David Prior, and Henry Krum.
• Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. michele.mcgrady@centralsydneycardiology.com.au
• Eur. J. Heart Fail. 2013 May 1; 15 (5): 573-80.

AimsImpaired diastolic function is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, but antecedents and predictors of progression to heart failure (HF) are not well understood. We examined associations between NT-proBNP, HF risk factors, and diastolic function in a population at high risk for incident HF.Methods And ResultsA total of 3550 subjects at high risk for incident HF (≥60 years plus ≥1 HF risk factor), but without pre-existing HF or LV dysfunction were recruited. Participants at highest risk (n = 664) (NT-proBNP in the highest quintile >254 pg/mL) underwent echocardiography. Moderate or severe diastolic dysfunction was observed in 25% [95% confidence interval (CI) 21-29%] of participants. Age (P = 0.001), male gender (P = 0.03), diabetes (P = 0.03), and NT-proBNP (P = 0.002) were associated with severity of diastolic dysfunction after adjustment for HF risk factors and LVEF. In regression analysis, log-transformed NT-proBNP was also associated with LV mass index (P = 0.05), left atrial size (P < 0.0001), and Doppler ratio of the mitral valve E/e' (P = 0.001). Multiple HF risk factors were present in the majority of participants (>70%), but no association was observed between diastolic dysfunction and the number of risk factors reported (P = 0.3).ConclusionDiastolic dysfunction was observed in one in four of these high risk subjects (≥ 60 years, HF risk factor, NT-proBNP >254 pg/mL). NT-proBNP, age and diabetes were strongly associated with severity of diastolic dysfunction, whereas other HF risk factors and LVEF were not. More targeted surveillance using a combination of risk factors and biomarkers may improve identification of those at great risk of incident HF.

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