• Richard A Deyo, Sara E Hallvik, Christi Hildebran, Miguel Marino, Eve Dexter, Jessica M Irvine, Nicole O'Kane, Joshua Van Otterloo, Dagan A Wright, Gillian Leichtling, and Lisa M Millet.
• Department of Family Medicine, Oregon Health and Science University, 3181 SW Sam Jackson Park Road, Mail Code FM, Portland, OR, 97239, USA. deyor@ohsu.edu.
• J Gen Intern Med. 2017 Jan 1; 32 (1): 21-27.

BackgroundLong-term efficacy of opioids for non-cancer pain is unproven, but risks argue for cautious prescribing. Few data suggest how long or how much opioid can be prescribed for opioid-naïve patients without inadvertently promoting long-term use.ObjectiveTo examine the association between initial opioid prescribing patterns and likelihood of long-term use among opioid-naïve patients.DesignRetrospective cohort study; data from Oregon resident prescriptions linked to death certificates and hospital discharges.ParticipantsPatients filling opioid prescriptions between October 1, 2012, and September 30, 2013, with no opioid fills for the previous 365 days. Subgroup analyses examined patients under age 45 who did not die in the follow-up year, excluding most cancer or palliative care patients.Main MeasuresExposure: Numbers of prescription fills and cumulative morphine milligram equivalents (MMEs) dispensed during 30 days following opioid initiation ("initiation month").OutcomeProportion of patients with six or more opioid fills during the subsequent year ("long-term users").Key ResultsThere were 536,767 opioid-naïve patients who filled an opioid prescription. Of these, 26,785 (5.0 %) became long-term users. Numbers of fills and cumulative MMEs during the initiation month were associated with long-term use. Among patients under age 45 using short-acting opioids who did not die in the follow-up year, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for long-term use among those receiving two fills versus one was 2.25 (95 % CI: 2.17, 2.33). Compared to those who received < 120 total MMEs, those who received between 400 and 799 had an OR of 2.96 (95 % CI: 2.81, 3.11). Patients initiating with long-acting opioids had a higher risk of long-term use than those initiating with short-acting drugs.ConclusionsEarly opioid prescribing patterns are associated with long-term use. While patient characteristics are important, clinicians have greater control over initial prescribing. Our findings may help minimize the risk of inadvertently initiating long-term opioid use.

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