• Emma L Karran, Adrian C Traeger, James H McAuley, Susan L Hillier, Yun-Hom Yau, and G Lorimer Moseley.
• Sansom Institute for Health Research, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia; Royal Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide, Australia.
• J Pain. 2017 Jun 1; 18 (6): 673-686.

AbstractPrognostic screening in patients with low back pain (LBP) offers a practical approach to guiding clinical decisions. Whether screening is helpful in secondary care is unclear. This prospective cohort study in adults with LBP placed on outpatient clinic waiting lists, compared the performance of the short-form Orebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire, the Predicting the Inception of Chronic Pain Tool, and the STarT Back Tool. We assessed predictive validity for outcome at 4-month follow-up, by calculating estimates of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance. We applied a decision curve analysis approach to describe the clinical value of screening in this setting via comparison with a 'treat-all' strategy. Complete data were available for 89% of enrolled participants (n = 195). Eighty-four percent reported 'poor outcome' at follow-up. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval) was .66 (.54-.78) for the Orebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire, .61 (.49-.73) for the Predicting the Inception of Chronic Pain Tool, and .69 (.51-.80) for the STarT Back Tool. All instruments were miscalibrated and underestimated risk. The decision curve analysis indicated that, in this setting, prognostic screening does not add value over and above a treat-all approach. The potential for LBP patients to be misclassified using screening and the high incidence of nonrecovery indicate that care decisions should be made with the assumption that all patients are 'at risk.'Copyright © 2017 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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