• Brett L Ecker, Matthew T McMillan, Valentina Allegrini, Claudio Bassi, Joal D Beane, Ross M Beckman, Stephen W Behrman, Euan J Dickson, Mark P Callery, John D Christein, Jeffrey A Drebin, Robert H Hollis, Michael G House, Nigel B Jamieson, Ammar A Javed, Tara S Kent, Michael D Kluger, Stacy J Kowalsky, Laura Maggino, Giuseppe Malleo, Vicente Valero, Lavanniya K P Velu, Amarra A Watkins, Christopher L Wolfgang, Amer H Zureikat, and Charles M Vollmer.
• Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA.
• Ann. Surg. 2019 Jan 1; 269 (1): 143-149.

ObjectiveTo identify a clinical fistula risk score following distal pancreatectomy.BackgroundClinically relevant pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) following distal pancreatectomy (DP) is a dominant contributor to procedural morbidity, yet risk factors attributable to CR-POPF and effective practices to reduce its occurrence remain elusive.MethodsThis multinational, retrospective study of 2026 DPs involved 52 surgeons at 10 institutions (2001-2016). CR-POPFs were defined by 2016 International Study Group criteria, and risk models generated using stepwise logistic regression analysis were evaluated by c-statistic. Mitigation strategies were assessed by regression modeling while controlling for identified risk factors and treating institution.ResultsCR-POPF occurred following 306 (15.1%) DPs. Risk factors independently associated with CR-POPF included: age (<60 yrs: OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.05-1.82), obesity (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.19-2.12), hypoalbuminenia (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.06-2.51), the absence of epidural anesthesia (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.17-2.16), neuroendocrine or nonmalignant pathology (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.18-2.06), concomitant splenectomy (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.25-3.17), and vascular resection (OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.25-3.17). After adjusting for inherent risk between cases by multivariable regression, the following were not independently associated with CR-POPF: method of transection, suture ligation of the pancreatic duct, staple size, the use of staple line reinforcement, tissue patches, biologic sealants, or prophylactic octreotide. Intraoperative drainage was associated with a greater fistula rate (OR 2.09, 95% CI 1.51-3.78) but reduced fistula severity (P < 0.001).ConclusionsFrom this large analysis of pancreatic fistula following DP, CR-POPF occurrence cannot be reliably predicted. Opportunities for developing a risk score model are limited for performing risk-adjusted analyses of mitigation strategies and surgeon performance.

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