• Eiman Jahangir, Loren Lipworth, Todd L Edwards, Edmond K Kabagambe, Michael T Mumma, George A Mensah, Sergio Fazio, William J Blot, and Uchechukwu K A Sampson.
• Department of Medicine, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA John Ochsner Heart and Vascular Institute, Ochsner Clinical School- The University of Queensland School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.
• J Epidemiol Community Health. 2015 May 1; 69 (5): 481-8.

BackgroundAbdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a leading cause of death in the USA. We evaluated the incidence and predictors of AAA in a prospectively followed cohort.MethodsWe calculated age-adjusted AAA incidence rates (IR) among 18 782 participants aged ≥65 years in the Southern Community Cohort Study who received Medicare coverage from 1999-2012, and assessed predictors of AAA using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, overall and stratified by sex, adjusting for demographic, lifestyle, socioeconomic, medical and other factors. HRs and 95% CIs were calculated for AAA in relation to factors ascertained at enrolment.ResultsOver a median follow-up of 4.94 years, 281 cases were identified. Annual IR was 153/100,000, 401, 354 and 174 among blacks, whites, men and women, respectively. AAA risk was lower among women (HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.65) and blacks (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.69). Smoking was the strongest risk factor (former: HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.27 to 2.87; current: HR 5.55, 95% CI 3.67 to 8.40), and pronounced in women (former: HR 3.4, 95% CI 1.83 to 6.31; current: HR 9.17, 95% CI 4.95 to 17). A history of hypertension (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.01) and myocardial infarction or coronary artery bypass surgery (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.37 to 2.63) was negatively associated, whereas a body mass index ≥25 kg/m(2) (HR 0.72; 95% CI 0.53 to 0.98) was protective. College education (HR 0.6, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.97) and black race (HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.67) were protective among men.ConclusionsSmoking is a major risk factor for incident AAA, with a strong and similar association between men and women. Further studies are needed to evaluate benefits of ultrasound screening for AAA among women smokers.Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

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