• Jason W Denbo, Rebecca S Slack, Morgan Bruno, Jordan M Cloyd, Laura Prakash, Jason B Fleming, Michael P Kim, Thomas A Aloia, Jean-Nicolas Vauthey, Jeffrey E Lee, and Matthew H G Katz.
• Department of Surgical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, 1515 Holcombe Boulevard, Unit 1484, Houston, TX, 77030, USA.
• J. Gastrointest. Surg. 2017 Apr 1; 21 (4): 636-646.

BackgroundIn a randomized trial, pasireotide significantly decreased the incidence and severity of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF). Subsequent analyses concluded that its routine use is cost-effective. We hypothesized that selective administration of the drug to patients at high risk for POPF would be more cost-effective.Study DesignConsecutive patients who did not receive pasireotide and underwent pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) or distal pancreatectomy (DP) between July 2011 and January 2014 were distributed into groups based on their risk of POPF using a multivariate recursive partitioning regression tree analysis (RPA) of preoperative clinical factors. The costs of treating hypothetical patients in each risk group were then computed based upon actual institutional hospital costs and previously published relative risk values associated with pasireotide.ResultsAmong 315 patients who underwent pancreatectomy, grade B/C POPF occurred in 64 (20%). RPA allocated patients who underwent PD into four groups with a risk for grade B/C POPF of 0, 10, 29, or 60% (P < 0.001) on the basis of diagnosis, pancreatic duct diameter, and body mass index. Patients who underwent DP were allocated to three groups with a grade B/C POPF risk of 14, 26, or 44% (P = 0.05) on the basis of pancreatic duct diameter alone. Although the routine administration of pasireotide to all 315 patients would have theoretically saved $30,892 over standard care, restriction of pasireotide to only patients at high risk for POPF would have led to a cost savings of $831,916.ConclusionPreoperative clinical characteristics can be used to characterize patients' risk for POPF following pancreatectomy. Selective administration of pasireotide only to patients at high risk for grade B/C POPF may maximize the cost-efficacy of prophylactic pasireotide.

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