• Susan Tsai, Ben George, David Wittmann, Paul S Ritch, Ashley N Krepline, Mohammed Aldakkak, Chad A Barnes, Kathleen K Christians, Kulwinder Dua, Michael Griffin, Catherine Hagen, William A Hall, Beth A Erickson, and Douglas B Evans.
• Pancreatic Cancer Program, Department of Surgery, The Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI.
• Ann. Surg. 2020 Apr 1; 271 (4): 740-747.

ObjectiveCarbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) is a prognostic marker for patients with pancreatic cancer (PC), but its value as a treatment biomarker is unclear.Summary Background DataAlthough CA19-9 is an established prognostic marker for patients with PC, it is unclear how CA19-9 monitoring should be used to guide multimodality treatment and what level of change in CA19-9 constitutes a meaningful treatment response.MethodsCA19-9 measurements at diagnosis (pretx), after completion of all planned neoadjuvant therapy (preop), and after surgery (postop) were analyzed in patients with localized PC who had an elevated CA19-9 (≥35 U/dL) at diagnosis. Patients were classified by: 1) quartiles of pretx CA19-9 (Q1-4); 2) proportional changes in CA19-9 (ΔCA19-9) after the completion of neoadjuvant therapy; 3) normalization (CA19-9 <35 U/dL) of preop CA19-9; and 4) normalization of postop CA19-9.ResultsAmong 131 patients, the median overall survival (OS) was 30 months; 68 months for the 33 patients in Q1 of pretx CA19-9 (<80 U/dL) compared with 25 months for the 98 patients in Q2-4 (P = 0.03). For the 98 patients in Q2-4, preop CA19-9 declined (from pretx) in 86 (88%), but there was no association between the magnitude of ΔCA19-9 and OS (P = 0.77). Median OS of the 98 patients who did (n = 29) or did not (n = 69) normalize their preop CA19-9 were 46 and 23 months, respectively (P = 0.02). Of the 69 patients with an elevated preop CA19-9, 32 (46%) normalized their postop CA19-9. Failure to normalize preop or postop CA19-9 was associated with a 2.77-fold and 4.03-fold increased risk of death, respectively (P < 0.003) as compared with patients with normal preop CA19-9.ConclusionsFollowing neoadjuvant therapy, normalization of CA19-9, rather than the magnitude of change, is the strongest prognostic marker for long-term survival.

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