• Kehan Song, Jian Song, Xio Shi, Hongli Wang, Xiaosheng Ma, Xinlei Xia, Xin Liang, Kaiyuan Lin, and Jianyuan Jiang.
• Department of Orthopaedics, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
• Spine. 2018 Nov 1; 43 (21): E1281-E1289.

Study DesignRetrospective analysis.ObjectiveTo develop and validate nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of spinal chondrosarcoma patients.Summary Of Background DataIn this era of personalized medicine, data those are available to predict the survival of spinal chondrosarcoma patients are still limited due to the rarity of the disease. Nomogram, which has been widely used in clinical oncology, could conveniently and precisely predict survival outcome for individual patient.MethodsWe retrospectively collected 450 spinal chondrosarcoma patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1984 and 2013. Univariate log-rank and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors. These prognostic factors were included in the nomograms, which predict 3- and 5-year OS and CSS rate. The nomograms were bootstrap validated internally and externally.ResultsA total of 450 patients were collected and randomly assigned into the training (n = 225) and validation (n = 225) cohorts. Age, histologic subtype, grade, tumor size, stage, and surgery were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS (all P < 0.05) and were further incorporated to construct the nomograms. The concordance indices (C-indices) for internal validation of OS and CSS prediction were 0.807 and 0.821, while for external validation of OS and CSS prediction were 0.756 and 0.767. Internal and external calibration plots both revealed an excellent agreement between nomogram prediction and actual survival.ConclusionNomograms were developed to predict OS and CSS for spinal chondrosarcoma patients. The nomograms could assist clinicians in making more accurate survival evaluation and identifying patients with high risk of mortality.Level Of Evidence4.

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