• Laura Girardat-Rotar, Julia Braun, Milo A Puhan, Alison G Abraham, and Andreas L Serra.
• Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute, University of Zurich, Hirschengraben 84, 8001, Zurich, Switzerland.
• Bmc Nephrol. 2017 Jul 17; 18 (1): 241.

BackgroundPrediction models in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) are useful in clinical settings to identify patients with greater risk of a rapid disease progression in whom a treatment may have more benefits than harms. Mayo Clinic investigators developed a risk prediction tool for ADPKD patients using a single kidney value. Our aim was to perform an independent geographical and temporal external validation as well as evaluate the potential for improving the predictive performance by including additional information on total kidney volume.MethodsWe used data from the on-going Swiss ADPKD study from 2006 to 2016. The main analysis included a sample size of 214 patients with Typical ADPKD (Class 1). We evaluated the Mayo Clinic model performance calibration and discrimination in our external sample and assessed whether predictive performance could be improved through the addition of subsequent kidney volume measurements beyond the baseline assessment.ResultsThe calibration of both versions of the Mayo Clinic prediction model using continuous Height adjusted total kidney volume (HtTKV) and using risk subclasses was good, with R2 of 78% and 70%, respectively. Accuracy was also good with 91.5% and 88.7% of the predicted within 30% of the observed, respectively. Additional information regarding kidney volume did not substantially improve the model performance.ConclusionThe Mayo Clinic prediction models are generalizable to other clinical settings and provide an accurate tool based on available predictors to identify patients at high risk for rapid disease progression.

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