• Ann. Surg. Oncol. · Feb 2019

    Validation of a Nomogram for Non-sentinel Node Positivity in Melanoma Patients, and Its Clinical Implications: A Brazilian-Dutch Study.

    • Eduardo Bertolli, Viola Franke, Vinicius Fernando Calsavara, Mariana Petaccia de Macedo, Clovis Antonio Lopes Pinto, Winan J van Houdt, Wouters Michel W J M MWJM Department of Surgical Oncology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands., Joao Pedreira Duprat Neto, and van Akkooi Alexander C J ACJ Department of Surgical Oncology, The Netherlands Cancer Institute, Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands..
    • Skin Cancer Department, AC Camargo Cancer Center, São Paulo, SP, Brazil. ebertolli@hotmail.com.
    • Ann. Surg. Oncol. 2019 Feb 1; 26 (2): 395-405.

    BackgroundNon-sentinel node (NSN) positivity impacts the prognosis of melanoma patients; however, the benefits of completion lymph node dissection in patients with positive sentinel nodes (SNs) are limited.ObjectiveWe aimed to present a predictive nomogram for NSN positivity in melanoma patients with a positive SN biopsy.MethodsThis retrospective analysis from patients who underwent SN biopsy in a Brazilian institution from 2000 to 2015 was used for the construction and internal validation of the nomogram. This nomogram was then externally validated in a cohort of Dutch patients.ResultsThe Brazilian cohort comprised 1213 patients, with a mean follow-up of 5.11 years. Breslow thickness (odds ratio [OR] 1.170, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.043-1.314]; p = 0.008), number of positive SNs (OR 1.092, 95% CI 1.034-1.153; p = 0.001), and largest diameter of the metastatic deposit (OR 3.217, 95% CI 1.551-6.674; p = 0.002) were statistically significant for NSN positivity. Internal validation was performed using a bootstrapping technique. A good performance was observed (Brier score 0.097) and an excellent power of discrimination was achieved (area under the curve [AUC] 0.822). The nomogram was then applied to the Dutch cohort, and its overall performance (Brier score 0.085), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test; p = 0.198), and discriminatory power (AUC 0.752, 95% CI 0.615-0.890) were all adequate.ConclusionsWe presented a nomogram for assessing NSN probability that should not only be used for surgical considerations but also for risk stratification and clinical decisions. Internal validation has shown that this is an adequate model, while external validation increases the model's reliability and suggests that it can be globally incorporated.

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