• Runhua Zhang, Ruijun Ji, Yuesong Pan, Yong Jiang, Gaifen Liu, Yilong Wang, and Yongjun Wang.
• Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China; China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases, Beijing, China; Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China.
• J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis. 2017 May 1; 26 (5): 938-943.

Background And PurposePneumonia is an important risk factor for mortality and morbidity after stroke. The Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) score was shown to be a useful tool for predicting stroke-associated pneumonia based on UK multicenter cohort study. We aimed to externally validate the score using data from the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR).MethodsEligible patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in the CNSR from 2007 to 2008 were included. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve was used to evaluate discrimination. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and Pearson correlation coefficient were performed to assess calibration of the model.ResultsA total of 19,333 patients (AIS = 14400; ICH = 4933) were included and the overall pneumonia rate was 12.7%. The AUC was .76 (95% confidence interval [CI]: .75-.78) for the subgroup of AIS and .70 (95% CI: .68-.72) for the subgroup of ICH. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed the ISAN score with the good calibration for AIS and ICH (P = .177 and .405, respectively). The plot of observed versus predicted pneumonia rates suggested higher correlation for patients with AIS than with ICH (Pearson correlation coefficient = .99 and .83, respectively).ConclusionsThe ISAN score was a useful tool for predicting in-hospital pneumonia after acute stroke, especially for patients with AIS. Further validations need to be done in different populations.Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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