• Heling Chu, Chuyi Huang, Jing Dong, Xiaobo Yang, Jun Xiang, Yiting Mao, Qiang Dong, and Yuping Tang.
• Department of Neurology, Huashan Hospital, State Key Laboratory of Medical Neurobiology, Fudan University, No. 12 Mid. Wulumuqi Road, Shanghai, 200040, China.
• Neurocrit Care. 2019 Dec 1; 31 (3): 455-465.

BackgroundEarly hematoma expansion in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients is associated with poor outcome. We aimed to investigate whether the minimal computed tomography (CT) attenuation value predicted hematoma expansion and poor outcome.MethodsThis study involved spontaneous ICH patients of two cohorts who underwent baseline CT scan within 6 h after ICH onset and follow-up CT scan within 24 h after initial CT scan. We determined the critical value of the minimal CT attenuation value via retrospective analysis of the data from a derivation cohort. Then, a prospective study on the validation cohort of three clinical centers was performed for determining the association between the minimal CT attenuation value and hematoma expansion as well as poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale scores > 3) at 90 days by using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.ResultsOne hundred and forty eight ICH patients were included in the derivation cohort. Minimal CT attenuation value ≤ 31 Hounsfield units (HU) was demonstrated as the critical value to predict hematoma expansion by using receiver operating characteristic analysis. A total of 311 ICH patients were enrolled in the validation cohort, 86 (27.7%) and 133 (42.8%) of which were found hematoma expansion and poor outcome. Minimal CT attenuation value ≤ 31 HU was positive in 73 patients (23.5%). The multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated minimal CT attenuation value and minimal CT attenuation value ≤ 31 HU independently predicted hematoma expansion (p < 0.001) and poor outcome (p < 0.001). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of minimal CT attenuation value ≤ 31 HU for hematoma expansion and poor outcome prediction were 64.0, 92.0, 75.3, 87.0, 84.2 and 45.1%, 92.7%, 82.2%, 69.3%, 72.3%, respectively.ConclusionsThe minimal CT attenuation value independently predicts early hematoma expansion and poor outcome in patients with ICH.

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