• David R Vinson, Dustin W Ballard, Dustin G Mark, Jie Huang, Mary E Reed, Adina S Rauchwerger, David H Wang, James S Lin, Mamata V Kene, Tamara S Pleshakov, Dana K Sax, Jordan M Sax, D Ian McLachlan, Cyrus K Yamin, Clifford J Swap, Hilary R Iskin, Ridhima Vemula, Bethany S Fleming, Andrew R Elms, Drahomir Aujesky, and MAPLE investigators of the KP CREST Network.
• The Permanente Medical Group, Oakland, California, United States; Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, California, United States; Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaiser Permanente Sacramento Medical Center, Sacramento, California, United States. Electronic address: drvinson@ucdavis.edu.
• Thromb. Res. 2016 Dec 1; 148: 1-8.

IntroductionThe Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) is a validated prognostic score to estimate the 30-day mortality of emergency department (ED) patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). A simplified version (sPESI) was derived but has not been as well studied in the U.S. We sought to validate both indices in a community hospital setting in the U.S. and compare their performance in predicting 30-day all-cause mortality and classification of cases into low-risk and higher-risk categories.Materials And MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included adults with acute objectively confirmed PE from 1/2013 to 4/2015 across 21 community EDs. We evaluated the misclassification rate of the sPESI compared with the PESI. We assessed accuracy of both indices with regard to 30-day mortality.ResultsAmong 3006 cases of acute PE, the 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 4.4%. The sPESI performed as well as the PESI in identifying low-risk patients: both had similar sensitivities, negative predictive values, and negative likelihood ratios. The sPESI, however, classified a smaller proportion of patients as low risk than the PESI (27.5% vs. 41.0%), but with similar low-risk mortality rates (<1%). Compared with the PESI, the sPESI overclassified 443 low-risk patients (14.7%) as higher risk, yet their 30-day mortality was 0.7%. The sPESI underclassified 100 higher-risk patients (3.3%) as low risk who also had a low mortality rate (1.0%).ConclusionsBoth indices identified patients with PE who were at low risk for 30-day mortality. The sPESI, however, misclassified a significant number of low-mortality patients as higher risk, which could lead to unnecessary hospitalizations.Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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