• Guo-Wen Hu, Hai-Li Lang, Hua Guo, Lei Wu, Pei Zhang, Wei Kuang, and Xin-Gen Zhu.
• Department of Neurosurgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, China.
• Eur. J. Pediatr. 2017 Jun 1; 176 (6): 689-696.

AbstractTraumatic brain injury (TBI) is one of the leading causes of death and disability in children, and progressive hemorrhagic injury (PHI) post TBI is associated with poor outcomes. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop and validate a prognostic model that uses the information available at admission to determine the likelihood of PHI occurrence after TBI in children. The identified demographic data, cause of injury, clinical predictors on admission, computed tomography scan characteristics, and routine laboratory parameters were collected and used to develop a PHI prognostic model with logistic regression analysis, and the prediction model was validated in 68 children. Eight independent prognostic factors were identified: lower Glasgow coma scale score (3 ~ 8) (6 points), intra-axial bleeding/brain contusion (4 points), midline shift ≥5 mm (9 points), platelets <100 × 109/L (11 points), prothrombin time >14 s (6 points), international normalized ratio >1.25 (7 points), D-dimer ≥5 mg/L (14 points), and glucose ≧10 mmol/L (11 points). We calculated risk scores for each child and defined three risk groups: low risk (0-16 points), intermediate risk (17-36 points), and high risk (37-68 points). In the development cohort, the PHI rates after TBI for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 10.1, 47.9, and 84.2%, respectively. In the validation cohort, the corresponding PHI rates were 10.9, 47.5, and 85.4%, respectively. The C-statistic for the point system was 0.873 (p = 0.586 by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test) in the development cohort and 0.877 (p = 0.524 by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test) in the validation cohort.

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