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Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol · Jun 2017
The postoperative Model for End stage Liver Disease score as a predictor of short-term outcome after transplantation of extended criteria donor livers.
- Tamas Benko, Anja Gallinat, Thomas Minor, Fuat H Saner, Georgios C Sotiropoulos, Andreas Paul, and Dieter P Hoyer.
- Department of General, Visceral and Transplantation Surgery, University Hospital Essen, University Essen-Duisburg, Essen-Duisburg, Germany.
- Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2017 Jun 1; 29 (6): 716-722.
BackgroundRecently, the postoperative Model for End stage Liver Disease score (POPMELD) was suggested as a definition of postoperative graft dysfunction and a predictor of outcome after liver transplantation (LT).AimThe aim of the present study was to validate this concept in the context of extended criteria donor (ECD) organs.Patients And MethodsSingle-center prospectively collected data (OPAL study/01/11-12/13) of 116 ECD LTs were utilized. For each recipient, the Model for End stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was calculated for 7 postoperative days (PODs). The ability of international normalized ratio, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, Donor Risk Index, a recent definition of early allograft dysfunction, and the POPMELD was compared to predict 90-day graft loss. Predictive abilities were compared by receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivity and specificity, and positive and negative predictive values.ResultsThe median Donor Risk Index was 1.8. In all, 60.3% of recipients were men [median age of 54 (23-68) years]. The median POD1-7 peak-aspartate aminotransferase value was 1052 (194-17 577) U/l. The rate of early allograft dysfunction was 22.4%. The 90-day graft survival was 89.7%. Out of possible predictors of the 90-day graft loss MELD on POD5 was the best predictor of outcome (area under the curve=0.84). A MELD score of 16 or more on POD5 predicted the 90-day graft loss with a specificity of 80.8%, a sensitivity of 81.8%, and a positive and negative predictive value of 31 and 97.7%.ConclusionA MELD score of 16 or more on POD5 is an excellent predictor of outcome in ECD donor LT. Routine evaluation of POPMELD scores might support clinical decision-making and should be reported routinely in clinical trials.
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