• Yang Gu, Qisen Wu, Shiping Luo, Taotao Lin, Linquan Zhou, Shengxiong Zheng, Bin Lin, Qin Lin, Zhengru Wu, Wenge Liu, and Zhenyu Wang.
• Department of Orthopedics, Affiliated Union Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian Province, China.
• World Neurosurg. 2020 Jul 1; 139: e245-e254.

ObjectiveIn this retrospective study, our objective was to establish a nomogram to predict the effectiveness of cervical traction in young and middle-aged chronic nonspecific neck pain (CNNP) patients with unsatisfactory nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) control. For CNNP patients with unsatisfactory NSAID control, the effectiveness of cervical traction varies. Neck muscle fat infiltration and clinical features may associate with the effectiveness.MethodsA total of 186 suitable patients were classified into a training data set (from August 2015 to July 2018, n = 118) and a validation data set (from August 2018 to June 2019, n = 68) with time sequence. All patients were included to receive magnetic resonance imaging scan to calculate posterior cervical fat and muscle features, then undergoing unified cervical traction in an outpatient clinic. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to select potentially relevant features to predict effectiveness possibility of cervical traction. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop the predicting model, presenting with a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed based on its calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility.ResultsThrough the LASSO regression model, we identified 4 predictors including sex, good exercise compliance, the ratio of the cross-sectional area (CSA) between fat and muscle on C5 level (C5 fat CSA/muscle CSA), the ratio of CSA between fat and centrum on C5 level (C5 fat CSA/centrum muscle CSA). The nomogram provided good calibration and discrimination in the training cohort, showing an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.704 (95% CI, 0.608-0.799) and good concordance between the predicted and actual probabilities with Spiegelhalter's Z-test (P = 0.835). Discrimination of the model in the validation data set was acceptable, with AUC of 0.691 (95% CI, 0.564-0.817). Decision curve analysis revealed the nomogram to be clinically useful.ConclusionsMale sex, good exercise compliance, lower C5 fat CSA/centrum CSA, and and lower C5 fat CSA/muscle CSA could be favorable features to predict the effectiveness of cervical traction in CNNP patients with unsatisfactory NSAID control.Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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