• Eurosurveillance · Jan 2020

    Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020.

    • Julien Riou and Christian L Althaus.
    • Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
    • Eurosurveillance. 2020 Jan 1; 25 (4).

    AbstractSince December 2019, China has been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which can cause respiratory disease and severe pneumonia. We estimated the basic reproduction number R0 of 2019-nCoV to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4-3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and pandemic influenza, indicating a risk of global spread.

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