• Brent M Egan, Jiexiang Li, Kellee White, Douglas O Fleming, Kenneth Connell, German T Hernandez, Daniel W Jones, Keith C Ferdinand, and Angelo Sinopoli.
• Department of Medicine, University of South Carolina School of Medicine-Greenville, SC Care Coordination Institute, Greenville, SC began@ccihealth.org.
• J Am Heart Assoc. 2016 Aug 19; 5 (8).

BackgroundHealthy People 2020 aim to reduce fatal atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) by 20%, which translates into 310 000 fewer events annually assuming proportional reduction in fatal and nonfatal ASCVD. We estimated preventable ASCVD events by implementing the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 2013 Cholesterol Guideline in all statin-eligible adults. Absolute risk reduction (ARR) and number needed-to-treat (NNT) were calculated.Methods And ResultsNational Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data for 2007-2012 were analyzed for adults aged 21 to 79 years and extrapolated to the US population. Literature-guided assumptions were used including (1) low-density lipoprotein cholesterol falls 33% with moderate-intensity statins and 51% with high-intensity statins; (2) for each 39 mg/dL decline in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, 10-year ASCVD10 risk would fall 21% when ASCVD10 risk was ≥20% and 33% when ASCVD10 risk was <20%; and (3) either all statin-eligible untreated adults or all with ASCVD10 risk ≥7.5% would receive statins. Of 175.9 million adults aged 21 to 79 years not taking statins, 44.8 million (25.5%) were statin eligible. Treating all statin-eligible adults would prevent an estimated 243 589 ASCVD events annually (ARR 5.4%, 10-year NNT 18). Treating all statin-eligible adults with ASCVD10 risk ≥7.5% reduces the number treated to 32.2 million (28.2% fewer), whereas ASCVD events prevented annually fall only 10.5% to 217 974 (6.8% ARR, NNT 15).ConclusionsImplementing the ACC/AHA 2013 Cholesterol Guideline in all untreated, statin-eligible adults could achieve ≈78% of the Healthy People 2020 ASCVD prevention goal. Most of the benefit is attained by individuals with 10-year ASCVD risk ≥7.5%.© 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

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