• Morten Rix Hansen, Asbjørn Hróbjartsson, Lars Videbæk, Zandra Nymand Ennis, Manan Pareek, Niels Herluf Paulsen, Martin Broe, Morten Olesen, Anton Pottegård, Per Damkier, and Jesper Hallas.
• Clinical Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Department of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark; Department of Clinical Biochemistry and Pharmacology, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark; Department of Clinical Pharmacology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark. Electronic address: mrix@health.sdu.dk.
• Am. J. Med. 2020 Jun 1; 133 (6): e280-e289.

BackgroundOutcome postponement has been proposed as an effect measure for preventive drug treatment. It describes the average delay of the investigated unwanted clinical event, achieved by taking medication. The objective was to estimate postponement of death for the following heart failure medications compared to placebo: beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs), ARB added to ACE inhibitors, aldosterone antagonists, ivabradine, and renin antagonists.MethodsWe searched Medline and Embase from inception of databases until October 2017. Eligibility criteria were randomized placebo-controlled heart failure trials, including at least 1000 participants, with survival as a prespecified outcome and a minimum trial duration of 1 year. We calculated the outcome postponement by modeling the area between survival curves. This area was modeled on the basis of the hazard ratio or relative risk, the rate of mortality in the placebo group, and the trial duration. All results were standardized to a 3-year trial duration to ensure comparability between treatments.ResultsWe identified 14 eligible trials, with a total of 52,014 patients. The results in terms of postponement of all-cause mortality was: beta-blockers 43.7 days (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 20.8-66.5), ACE inhibitors 41.0 days (95% CI, 18.8-63.3), and aldosterone-antagonists 41.3 days (95% CI, 14.3,68.4).ConclusionThe modeled outcome postponement estimates reiterate beta-blockers, ACE inhibitors, and aldosterone antagonists as the mainstay of heart failure treatment. Furthermore, ivabradine or ARBs added to ACE inhibitors results in no statistically significant gain in survival.Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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